feat: flag accounts Reddit considers unestablished and re-test them

New accounts cannot start chats until Reddit considers them established.
Until now the bot would burn a candidate on every invitation Reddit was
always going to reject, with nothing in the dashboard explaining why the
account looked idle.

Two signals feed the verdict. A periodic profile check reads the
account's own age, karma and email verification from about.json and
compares them against configurable thresholds — that is what flags a
brand new account before it wastes anything. A rejected invitation is
authoritative: Reddit has told us directly, so the account is held out of
sending with a backoff that doubles per rejection, and a delivered
invitation clears the flag outright.

An unestablished account takes no new posts (canAcceptPost), raises an
attention item, reports an `unestablished` sending state, and shows its
age/karma evidence on the Accounts page. An unchecked account is always
allowed through, so a first run is never blocked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

apps/dashboard/src/features/accounts/accounts-page.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import { useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react';
+import type { AccountEstablishmentSummary } from '../../../../../packages/api-contracts/src/index.js';
 import { RedditUsernameLink } from '../../components/reddit-username-link.js';
 import {
   useImportRedditSessionMutation,
@@ -11,6 +12,68 @@ function errorMessage(error: Error | null): string {
   return error?.message ?? 'Something went wrong.';
 }
 
+function karmaLabel(value: number | null): string {
+  return value === null ? 'unknown' : value.toLocaleString();
+}
+
+function ageLabel(days: number | null): string {
+  if (days === null) return 'unknown';
+  if (days < 1) return 'less than a day';
+  return `${days.toLocaleString()} day${days === 1 ? '' : 's'}`;
+}
+
+function retryLabel(retryAt: number | null): string {
+  if (retryAt === null) return 'Will be re-tested on the next profile check.';
+  const minutes = Math.round((retryAt - Date.now()) / 60_000);
+  if (minutes <= 0) return 'Due for a re-test now.';
+  if (minutes < 60) return `Next re-test in ${minutes} minute${minutes === 1 ? '' : 's'}.`;
+  const hours = Math.round(minutes / 60);
+  return `Next re-test in about ${hours} hour${hours === 1 ? '' : 's'}.`;
+}
+
+/**
+ * A new account cannot start chats until Reddit considers it established. The
+ * bot holds it out of sending and re-tests it, so this panel exists to explain
+ * why an account looks idle.
+ */
+function EstablishmentDetail({ establishment }: { establishment: AccountEstablishmentSummary }) {
+  const isUnestablished = establishment.state === 'unestablished';
+  return (
+    <div className="account-establishment">
+      {isUnestablished ? (
+        <>
+          <p className="account-establishment-reason">
+            {establishment.reasons.length > 0
+              ? establishment.reasons.join('; ')
+              : 'Reddit will not accept chat invitations from this account yet.'}
+          </p>
+          <p className="field-hint">Outbound sending is on hold. {retryLabel(establishment.retryAt)}</p>
+        </>
+      ) : null}
+      {establishment.lastProbeFailure && !isUnestablished ? (
+        <p className="field-hint">Last rejection: {establishment.lastProbeFailure}</p>
+      ) : null}
+      <dl className="account-establishment-metrics">
+        <div><dt>Age</dt><dd>{ageLabel(establishment.accountAgeDays)}</dd></div>
+        <div><dt>Post karma</dt><dd>{karmaLabel(establishment.linkKarma)}</dd></div>
+        <div><dt>Comment karma</dt><dd>{karmaLabel(establishment.commentKarma)}</dd></div>
+        <div><dt>Total karma</dt><dd>{karmaLabel(establishment.totalKarma)}</dd></div>
+        <div>
+          <dt>Verified email</dt>
+          <dd>{establishment.hasVerifiedEmail === null ? 'unknown' : establishment.hasVerifiedEmail ? 'Yes' : 'No'}</dd>
+        </div>
+      </dl>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function establishmentPill(establishment: AccountEstablishmentSummary | null | undefined) {
+  if (!establishment || establishment.state === 'unknown') return null;
+  return establishment.state === 'unestablished'
+    ? <span className="pill warning">Not established</span>
+    : <span className="pill success">Established</span>;
+}
+
 function sessionLabel(status: ReturnType<typeof useLoginStatusQuery>['data']): string {
   if (!status) return 'Unknown';
   if (!status.ready) return 'Browser unavailable';
@@ -57,6 +120,7 @@ export function AccountsPage() {
     : null;
   const accounts = accountsQuery.data ?? [];
   const pausedCount = accounts.filter((account) => !account.isRunning).length;
+  const unestablished = accounts.filter((account) => account.establishment?.state === 'unestablished');
 
   return (
     <div className="page accounts-page">
@@ -82,6 +146,20 @@ export function AccountsPage() {
         </div>
       ) : null}
 
+      {unestablished.length > 0 ? (
+        <div className="state-banner is-warning" role="status">
+          <strong>
+            {unestablished.length === 1
+              ? `u/${unestablished[0].redditUsername} is not established yet.`
+              : `${unestablished.length} accounts are not established yet.`}
+          </strong>
+          <span>
+            Reddit will not accept chat invitations from a new account, so outbound sending is on hold
+            for it. The bot re-tests periodically and resumes on its own.
+          </span>
+        </div>
+      ) : null}
+
       {statusQuery.isPending ? (
         <div aria-label="Loading access" className="page-state" role="status">
           <span className="spinner" />Loading Reddit access…
@@ -127,10 +205,16 @@ export function AccountsPage() {
                       <strong><RedditUsernameLink username={account.redditUsername} /></strong>
                       <span>{account.isRunning ? 'Running independently' : 'Waiting for a refreshed session'}</span>
                     </div>
+                    <div className="account-row-pills">
+                      {establishmentPill(account.establishment)}
                       <span className={account.isRunning ? 'pill success' : 'pill warning'}>
                         {account.isRunning ? 'Running' : 'Paused'}
                       </span>
                     </div>
+                    {account.establishment && account.establishment.state !== 'unknown' ? (
+                      <EstablishmentDetail establishment={account.establishment} />
+                    ) : null}
+                  </div>
                 ))}
                 {accountsQuery.isSuccess && accounts.length === 0 ? (
                   <div className="empty-state">

apps/dashboard/src/features/accounts/accounts.css

@@ -8,3 +8,13 @@
 .account-row > div { display: grid; gap: .2rem; min-width: 0; }
 .account-row span { color: var(--muted); font-size: .82rem; }
 .account-row .pill { font-size: .7rem; }
+.account-row > .account-row-pills { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; gap: .4rem; }
+
+/* Establishment evidence sits on its own row beneath the account summary. */
+.account-establishment { flex-basis: 100%; display: grid; gap: .4rem; padding-top: .7rem; border-top: 1px solid var(--border); }
+.account-establishment .account-establishment-reason { margin: 0; font-size: .82rem; }
+.account-establishment .field-hint { margin: 0; }
+.account-establishment-metrics { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: .35rem 1.25rem; margin: 0; }
+.account-establishment-metrics > div { display: grid; gap: .1rem; }
+.account-establishment-metrics dt { color: var(--muted); font-size: .7rem; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: .04em; }
+.account-establishment-metrics dd { margin: 0; font-size: .82rem; font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; }

apps/dashboard/src/features/attention/attention-page.tsx

@@ -18,6 +18,8 @@ function actionHint(kind: AttentionItem['kind']): string {
   switch (kind) {
     case 'account-login-required':
       return 'No linked conversation — check Settings.';
+    case 'account-unestablished':
+      return 'No linked conversation — check Accounts.';
     case 'runtime-failed':
     case 'invitation-cooldown':
     default:

apps/dashboard/src/features/overview/overview-page.tsx

@@ -89,6 +89,7 @@ const sendingStateCopy: Record<AccountStatus['sendingState'], { label: string; t
   'matrix-cooldown': { label: 'Matrix cooldown', tone: 'warning', detail: 'Only this account is paused by Reddit chat throttling.' },
   'replies-prioritized': { label: 'Replies first', tone: 'neutral', detail: 'Inbound replies are being handled before new outreach.' },
   pacing: { label: 'Pacing', tone: 'neutral', detail: 'Waiting for the account sending window.' },
+  unestablished: { label: 'Not established', tone: 'warning', detail: 'Reddit will not accept chat invitations from this account yet.' },
 };
 
 function AccountStatusPanel({ accounts }: { accounts: readonly AccountStatus[] }) {

packages/api-contracts/src/attention.ts

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ export const AttentionKindSchema = z.enum([
   'account-login-required',
   'runtime-failed',
   'invitation-cooldown',
+  'account-unestablished',
 ]);
 
 export const AttentionItemSchema = z.strictObject({

packages/api-contracts/src/session.ts

@@ -6,6 +6,24 @@ export const RedditSessionStateSchema = z.union([
   z.literal('login-required'),
   z.literal('unreachable'),
 ]);
+export const AccountEstablishmentStateSchema = z.union([
+  z.literal('unknown'),
+  z.literal('established'),
+  z.literal('unestablished'),
+]);
+export const AccountEstablishmentSummarySchema = z.strictObject({
+  state: AccountEstablishmentStateSchema,
+  reasons: z.array(z.string()),
+  accountAgeDays: z.number().nullable(),
+  linkKarma: z.number().nullable(),
+  commentKarma: z.number().nullable(),
+  totalKarma: z.number().nullable(),
+  hasVerifiedEmail: z.boolean().nullable(),
+  profileCheckedAt: z.number().nullable(),
+  lastProbeAt: z.number().nullable(),
+  lastProbeFailure: z.string().nullable(),
+  retryAt: z.number().nullable(),
+});
 export const RedditAccountSummarySchema = z.strictObject({
   accountId: z.string().min(1),
   redditUsername: z.string().min(1),
@@ -15,6 +33,8 @@ export const RedditAccountSummarySchema = z.strictObject({
   createdAt: z.number(),
   updatedAt: z.number(),
   lastImportedAt: z.number(),
+  /** Absent on responses from a build that predates establishment tracking. */
+  establishment: AccountEstablishmentSummarySchema.nullable().optional(),
 });
 export const RedditAccountOwnerSchema = RedditAccountSummarySchema.pick({
   accountId: true,
@@ -71,4 +91,6 @@ export type RedditSessionState = z.infer<typeof RedditSessionStateSchema>;
 export type LoginStatusResponse = z.infer<typeof LoginStatusResponseSchema>;
 export type RedditCookieImportRequest = z.infer<typeof RedditCookieImportRequestSchema>;
 export type RedditAccountSummary = z.infer<typeof RedditAccountSummarySchema>;
+export type AccountEstablishmentState = z.infer<typeof AccountEstablishmentStateSchema>;
+export type AccountEstablishmentSummary = z.infer<typeof AccountEstablishmentSummarySchema>;
 export type RedditAccountOwner = z.infer<typeof RedditAccountOwnerSchema>;

packages/api-contracts/src/stats.ts

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ export const AccountSendingStateSchema = z.enum([
   'matrix-cooldown',
   'replies-prioritized',
   'pacing',
+  'unestablished',
 ]);
 
 export const AccountStatusSchema = z.strictObject({

src/bootstrap.ts

@@ -43,7 +43,11 @@ import { PushNotifier } from './services/push-notifier.js';
 import { RedditSessionImporter } from './services/reddit-session-importer.js';
 import { AccountAuthContext, authenticateCurrentAccount } from './services/account-auth-context.js';
 import { ConfigStore } from './config/persistence.js';
-import { RedditAccountsRepository, AccountContentRepository } from './database/account-repositories.js';
+import {
+  RedditAccountsRepository,
+  AccountContentRepository,
+  RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository,
+} from './database/account-repositories.js';
 import { RedditAccountsService } from './services/reddit-accounts.js';
 import type { Cookie } from 'playwright';
 import { ChatCache } from './services/chat/cache.js';
@@ -371,6 +375,7 @@ export async function bootstrap(
     accountAuth,
     accountRuntimeManager,
     browserClient,
+    new RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository(db),
   );
   if (config.web.enabled) {
     webServer = new WebServer(

src/config/index.ts

@@ -164,6 +164,36 @@ export const ConfigSchema = z.object({
     killOnSellerKeyword: true,
     aiReplyScreening: { enabled: false, killConfidence: 0.8, flagConfidence: 0.6 },
   }),
+  /**
+   * New Reddit accounts cannot start chats until Reddit considers them
+   * established. Rather than burning candidates on invitations Reddit will
+   * reject, an account is flagged and held out of outbound sending, then
+   * re-tested on an interval.
+   */
+  accountEstablishment: z.object({
+    enabled: z.boolean().default(true),
+    /** How often an account's own age/karma profile is refreshed. */
+    profileCheckIntervalMs: z.number().int().min(60_000).default(6 * 60 * 60_000),
+    minAccountAgeDays: z.number().min(0).default(7),
+    minTotalKarma: z.number().int().min(0).default(20),
+    minCommentKarma: z.number().int().min(0).default(5),
+    requireVerifiedEmail: z.boolean().default(false),
+    /**
+     * How long to hold an account out of sending after Reddit rejects an
+     * invitation for being too new. Doubles per consecutive rejection.
+     */
+    probeRetryBaseMs: z.number().int().min(60_000).default(4 * 60 * 60_000),
+    probeRetryMaxMs: z.number().int().min(60_000).default(48 * 60 * 60_000),
+  }).default({
+    enabled: true,
+    profileCheckIntervalMs: 6 * 60 * 60_000,
+    minAccountAgeDays: 7,
+    minTotalKarma: 20,
+    minCommentKarma: 5,
+    requireVerifiedEmail: false,
+    probeRetryBaseMs: 4 * 60 * 60_000,
+    probeRetryMaxMs: 48 * 60 * 60_000,
+  }),
   pushNotifications: z.object({
     enabled: z.boolean().default(false),
     /** Base URL of the ntfy server, e.g. https://ntfy.example.com. */

src/database/account-repositories.ts

@@ -389,6 +389,211 @@ export class RedditRecipientAccountStatusRepository {
   }
 }
 
+export type AccountEstablishmentState = 'unknown' | 'established' | 'unestablished';
+
+export interface AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+  accountId: string;
+  state: AccountEstablishmentState;
+  /** Why the account is not established yet. Empty when it is. */
+  reasons: string[];
+  accountCreatedAt: number | null;
+  linkKarma: number | null;
+  commentKarma: number | null;
+  totalKarma: number | null;
+  hasVerifiedEmail: boolean | null;
+  profileCheckedAt: number | null;
+  lastProbeAt: number | null;
+  lastProbeFailure: string | null;
+  probeFailureCount: number;
+  /** Earliest time the account may attempt an outbound invitation again. */
+  retryAt: number | null;
+  updatedAt: number;
+}
+
+export interface AccountProfileMetricsInput {
+  accountCreatedAt: number | null;
+  linkKarma: number | null;
+  commentKarma: number | null;
+  totalKarma: number | null;
+  hasVerifiedEmail: boolean | null;
+}
+
+type EstablishmentRow = {
+  account_id: string;
+  state: AccountEstablishmentState;
+  reasons_json: string;
+  account_created_at: number | null;
+  link_karma: number | null;
+  comment_karma: number | null;
+  total_karma: number | null;
+  has_verified_email: number | null;
+  profile_checked_at: number | null;
+  last_probe_at: number | null;
+  last_probe_failure: string | null;
+  probe_failure_count: number;
+  retry_at: number | null;
+  updated_at: number;
+};
+
+/**
+ * Whether each of our own Reddit accounts is established enough for Reddit to
+ * accept chat invitations from it, and the profile evidence behind that call.
+ */
+export class RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository {
+  constructor(private readonly db: Database.Database) {}
+
+  get(accountId: string): AccountEstablishmentRecord | null {
+    const row = this.db.prepare('SELECT * FROM reddit_account_establishment WHERE account_id = ?')
+      .get(accountId) as EstablishmentRow | undefined;
+    return row ? mapEstablishment(row) : null;
+  }
+
+  list(): AccountEstablishmentRecord[] {
+    const rows = this.db.prepare('SELECT * FROM reddit_account_establishment ORDER BY account_id')
+      .all() as EstablishmentRow[];
+    return rows.map(mapEstablishment);
+  }
+
+  /** Store a profile snapshot and the verdict derived from it. */
+  saveProfileVerdict(input: {
+    accountId: string;
+    state: AccountEstablishmentState;
+    reasons: string[];
+    metrics: AccountProfileMetricsInput;
+    checkedAt?: number;
+    retryAt?: number | null;
+  }): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+    requireText(input.accountId, 'accountId');
+    const now = input.checkedAt ?? Date.now();
+    this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO reddit_account_establishment (
+        account_id, state, reasons_json, account_created_at, link_karma, comment_karma,
+        total_karma, has_verified_email, profile_checked_at, probe_failure_count, retry_at, updated_at
+      ) VALUES (
+        @accountId, @state, @reasonsJson, @accountCreatedAt, @linkKarma, @commentKarma,
+        @totalKarma, @hasVerifiedEmail, @now, 0, @retryAt, @now
+      )
+      ON CONFLICT(account_id) DO UPDATE SET
+        state = excluded.state,
+        reasons_json = excluded.reasons_json,
+        account_created_at = excluded.account_created_at,
+        link_karma = excluded.link_karma,
+        comment_karma = excluded.comment_karma,
+        total_karma = excluded.total_karma,
+        has_verified_email = excluded.has_verified_email,
+        profile_checked_at = excluded.profile_checked_at,
+        retry_at = excluded.retry_at,
+        updated_at = excluded.updated_at
+    `).run({
+      accountId: input.accountId,
+      state: input.state,
+      reasonsJson: JSON.stringify(input.reasons),
+      accountCreatedAt: input.metrics.accountCreatedAt,
+      linkKarma: input.metrics.linkKarma,
+      commentKarma: input.metrics.commentKarma,
+      totalKarma: input.metrics.totalKarma,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: boolToInt(input.metrics.hasVerifiedEmail),
+      retryAt: input.retryAt ?? null,
+      now,
+    });
+    return this.getRequired(input.accountId);
+  }
+
+  /** Record that Reddit rejected an outbound invitation for being too new. */
+  recordProbeFailure(input: {
+    accountId: string;
+    reason: string;
+    retryAt: number;
+    at?: number;
+  }): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+    requireText(input.accountId, 'accountId');
+    const now = input.at ?? Date.now();
+    this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO reddit_account_establishment (
+        account_id, state, reasons_json, last_probe_at, last_probe_failure,
+        probe_failure_count, retry_at, updated_at
+      ) VALUES (
+        @accountId, 'unestablished', @reasonsJson, @now, @reason, 1, @retryAt, @now
+      )
+      ON CONFLICT(account_id) DO UPDATE SET
+        state = 'unestablished',
+        reasons_json = excluded.reasons_json,
+        last_probe_at = excluded.last_probe_at,
+        last_probe_failure = excluded.last_probe_failure,
+        probe_failure_count = reddit_account_establishment.probe_failure_count + 1,
+        retry_at = excluded.retry_at,
+        updated_at = excluded.updated_at
+    `).run({
+      accountId: input.accountId,
+      reasonsJson: JSON.stringify([input.reason]),
+      reason: input.reason,
+      retryAt: input.retryAt,
+      now,
+    });
+    return this.getRequired(input.accountId);
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * A delivered invitation is the only positive proof an account is
+   * established, so it clears the flag and the failure backoff outright.
+   */
+  recordProbeSuccess(accountId: string, at: number = Date.now()): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+    requireText(accountId, 'accountId');
+    this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO reddit_account_establishment (
+        account_id, state, reasons_json, last_probe_at, probe_failure_count, retry_at, updated_at
+      ) VALUES (@accountId, 'established', '[]', @at, 0, NULL, @at)
+      ON CONFLICT(account_id) DO UPDATE SET
+        state = 'established',
+        reasons_json = '[]',
+        last_probe_at = excluded.last_probe_at,
+        last_probe_failure = NULL,
+        probe_failure_count = 0,
+        retry_at = NULL,
+        updated_at = excluded.updated_at
+    `).run({ accountId, at });
+    return this.getRequired(accountId);
+  }
+
+  private getRequired(accountId: string): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+    const record = this.get(accountId);
+    if (!record) throw new Error(`Establishment state for ${accountId} was not persisted`);
+    return record;
+  }
+}
+
+function mapEstablishment(row: EstablishmentRow): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+  return {
+    accountId: row.account_id,
+    state: row.state,
+    reasons: parseReasons(row.reasons_json),
+    accountCreatedAt: row.account_created_at,
+    linkKarma: row.link_karma,
+    commentKarma: row.comment_karma,
+    totalKarma: row.total_karma,
+    hasVerifiedEmail: row.has_verified_email === null ? null : row.has_verified_email === 1,
+    profileCheckedAt: row.profile_checked_at,
+    lastProbeAt: row.last_probe_at,
+    lastProbeFailure: row.last_probe_failure,
+    probeFailureCount: row.probe_failure_count,
+    retryAt: row.retry_at,
+    updatedAt: row.updated_at,
+  };
+}
+
+function parseReasons(json: string): string[] {
+  try {
+    const parsed = JSON.parse(json) as unknown;
+    return Array.isArray(parsed) ? parsed.filter((entry): entry is string => typeof entry === 'string') : [];
+  } catch {
+    return [];
+  }
+}
+
+function boolToInt(value: boolean | null): number | null {
+  return value === null ? null : value ? 1 : 0;
+}
+
 function mapConversation(row: ConversationRow): AccountConversationRecord {
   return {
     accountId: row.account_id,

src/database/client.ts

@@ -456,6 +456,27 @@ export function runMigrations(db: Database.Database): void {
       CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_reddit_recipient_account_status_due
         ON reddit_recipient_account_status(checked_at);
     `),
+    () => db.exec(`
+      CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS reddit_account_establishment (
+        account_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+        state TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(state IN ('unknown', 'established', 'unestablished')),
+        reasons_json TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '[]',
+        account_created_at INTEGER,
+        link_karma INTEGER,
+        comment_karma INTEGER,
+        total_karma INTEGER,
+        has_verified_email INTEGER,
+        profile_checked_at INTEGER,
+        last_probe_at INTEGER,
+        last_probe_failure TEXT,
+        probe_failure_count INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        retry_at INTEGER,
+        updated_at INTEGER NOT NULL,
+        FOREIGN KEY (account_id) REFERENCES reddit_accounts(account_id) ON DELETE CASCADE
+      );
+      CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_reddit_account_establishment_state
+        ON reddit_account_establishment(state, retry_at);
+    `),
   ];
 
   let currentVersion = db.pragma('user_version', { simple: true }) as number;

src/reddit/api.ts

@@ -16,8 +16,34 @@ const RedditUserAboutResponseSchema = z.object({
   }),
 });
 
+/**
+ * The subset of `/user/<name>/about.json` that says how established an account
+ * is. `has_verified_email` is only returned for the requesting user's own
+ * profile, so it stays nullable for anyone else.
+ */
+const RedditAccountProfileResponseSchema = z.object({
+  data: z.object({
+    created_utc: z.number().optional(),
+    link_karma: z.number().optional(),
+    comment_karma: z.number().optional(),
+    total_karma: z.number().optional(),
+    has_verified_email: z.boolean().nullish(),
+    is_suspended: z.boolean().optional(),
+  }),
+});
+
 export type RedditUserAccountStatus = 'active' | 'suspended' | 'deleted';
 
+export interface RedditAccountProfile {
+  /** Account creation time in epoch milliseconds. */
+  createdAt: number | null;
+  linkKarma: number | null;
+  commentKarma: number | null;
+  totalKarma: number | null;
+  hasVerifiedEmail: boolean | null;
+  isSuspended: boolean;
+}
+
 export class RedditRateLimitError extends Error {
   constructor(public readonly retryAfterMs: number) {
     const retryAfterSeconds = Math.ceil(retryAfterMs / 1000);
@@ -273,6 +299,42 @@ export class RedditApiClient {
     }
   }
 
+  /**
+   * Age, karma and email-verification for one account. Used to judge whether
+   * one of our own accounts is established enough for Reddit to let it start
+   * chats. Returns null when the profile no longer exists.
+   */
+  async getAccountProfile(username: string): Promise<RedditAccountProfile | null> {
+    const cookieHeader = await this.getCookieHeader();
+    const headers: Record<string, string> = {};
+    if (cookieHeader) headers.Cookie = cookieHeader;
+
+    try {
+      const response = await this.scheduleRequest(() => this.client.get(
+        `/user/${encodeURIComponent(username)}/about.json`,
+        { params: { raw_json: 1 }, headers },
+      ));
+      const { data } = RedditAccountProfileResponseSchema.parse(response.data);
+      const totalKarma = data.total_karma
+        ?? (data.link_karma === undefined && data.comment_karma === undefined
+          ? undefined
+          : (data.link_karma ?? 0) + (data.comment_karma ?? 0));
+      return {
+        createdAt: data.created_utc === undefined ? null : Math.round(data.created_utc * 1000),
+        linkKarma: data.link_karma ?? null,
+        commentKarma: data.comment_karma ?? null,
+        totalKarma: totalKarma ?? null,
+        hasVerifiedEmail: data.has_verified_email ?? null,
+        isSuspended: data.is_suspended === true,
+      };
+    } catch (error) {
+      if (axios.isAxiosError(error) && error.response?.status === 404) return null;
+      const rateLimitError = this.toRateLimitError(error);
+      if (rateLimitError) throw rateLimitError;
+      throw error;
+    }
+  }
+
   async getNewPosts(subreddit: string, limit = 25, type: 'image' | 'chat' = 'image'): Promise<RedditPost[]> {
     try {
       const cookieHeader = await this.getCookieHeader();

src/services/account-establishment.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,297 @@
+import type { Logger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+import { RedditRateLimitError, type RedditAccountProfile } from '../reddit/api.js';
+import type {
+  AccountEstablishmentRecord,
+  AccountProfileMetricsInput,
+  RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository,
+} from '../database/account-repositories.js';
+import { denyAccountAuth, type AccountAuthGate } from './account-auth-context.js';
+
+const DAY_MS = 24 * 60 * 60_000;
+const INITIAL_CHECK_DELAY_MS = 30_000;
+
+export interface AccountEstablishmentThresholds {
+  minAccountAgeDays: number;
+  minTotalKarma: number;
+  minCommentKarma: number;
+  requireVerifiedEmail: boolean;
+}
+
+export interface AccountEstablishmentSettings extends AccountEstablishmentThresholds {
+  enabled: boolean;
+  profileCheckIntervalMs: number;
+  probeRetryBaseMs: number;
+  probeRetryMaxMs: number;
+}
+
+export interface AccountProfileLookup {
+  getAccountProfile(username: string): Promise<RedditAccountProfile | null>;
+}
+
+/** Reddit's own codes for "this account may not create chats yet". */
+const UNESTABLISHED_REDDIT_CODES: readonly RegExp[] = [
+  /new_account/i,
+  /immature_account/i,
+  /young_account/i,
+  /account_age/i,
+  /minimum_karma/i,
+];
+
+const UNESTABLISHED_MESSAGE_PATTERNS: readonly RegExp[] = [
+  /account (?:is )?too new/i,
+  /\bnot old enough\b/i,
+  /\baccount age\b/i,
+  /\b(?:more|insufficient|not enough|low) karma\b/i,
+  /\bkarma (?:requirement|threshold)\b/i,
+  /\bverify your email\b/i,
+  /\bemail (?:is )?not verified\b/i,
+  /\bnot eligible to (?:send|start|create|chat)/i,
+  /\bnew accounts? (?:cannot|can't|are not allowed)/i,
+];
+
+/**
+ * Whether a failed invitation is Reddit refusing an unestablished account
+ * rather than an ordinary throttle. `rate.invitation_limit_mature_account` is
+ * deliberately excluded: it is the throttle applied to accounts that *are*
+ * established.
+ */
+export function isUnestablishedFailure(
+  reason: string | null | undefined,
+  redditCode: string | null | undefined,
+): boolean {
+  if (redditCode && /mature_account/i.test(redditCode) && !/immature_account/i.test(redditCode)) {
+    return false;
+  }
+  if (redditCode && UNESTABLISHED_REDDIT_CODES.some((pattern) => pattern.test(redditCode))) return true;
+  return Boolean(reason) && UNESTABLISHED_MESSAGE_PATTERNS.some((pattern) => pattern.test(reason!));
+}
+
+export interface ProfileVerdict {
+  established: boolean;
+  reasons: string[];
+}
+
+/**
+ * Judge an account's own profile against the configured thresholds. Missing
+ * values never count against the account — Reddit omits fields for reasons
+ * unrelated to how established the account is.
+ */
+export function evaluateAccountProfile(
+  metrics: AccountProfileMetricsInput,
+  thresholds: AccountEstablishmentThresholds,
+  now: number = Date.now(),
+): ProfileVerdict {
+  const reasons: string[] = [];
+  if (metrics.accountCreatedAt !== null) {
+    const ageDays = (now - metrics.accountCreatedAt) / DAY_MS;
+    if (ageDays < thresholds.minAccountAgeDays) {
+      reasons.push(
+        `Account is ${formatDays(ageDays)} old (needs ${formatDays(thresholds.minAccountAgeDays)})`,
+      );
+    }
+  }
+  if (metrics.totalKarma !== null && metrics.totalKarma < thresholds.minTotalKarma) {
+    reasons.push(`Total karma is ${metrics.totalKarma} (needs ${thresholds.minTotalKarma})`);
+  }
+  if (metrics.commentKarma !== null && metrics.commentKarma < thresholds.minCommentKarma) {
+    reasons.push(`Comment karma is ${metrics.commentKarma} (needs ${thresholds.minCommentKarma})`);
+  }
+  if (thresholds.requireVerifiedEmail && metrics.hasVerifiedEmail === false) {
+    reasons.push('Email address is not verified');
+  }
+  return { established: reasons.length === 0, reasons };
+}
+
+function formatDays(days: number): string {
+  if (days < 1) {
+    const hours = Math.max(0, Math.floor(days * 24));
+    return `${hours} hour${hours === 1 ? '' : 's'}`;
+  }
+  const whole = Math.floor(days);
+  return `${whole} day${whole === 1 ? '' : 's'}`;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Tracks whether one account is established enough for Reddit to accept chat
+ * invitations from it.
+ *
+ * Two signals feed the verdict. The profile check (age, karma, verified email)
+ * runs on an interval and is advisory — it is what flags a brand new account
+ * before it wastes a candidate. A rejected invitation is authoritative: Reddit
+ * has told us directly, so the account is held out of sending with an
+ * escalating backoff and re-tested when the backoff expires.
+ */
+export class AccountEstablishmentService {
+  private intervalHandle: NodeJS.Timeout | null = null;
+  private initialHandle: NodeJS.Timeout | null = null;
+  private checking = false;
+
+  constructor(
+    private readonly accountId: string,
+    private readonly redditUsername: string,
+    private readonly reddit: AccountProfileLookup,
+    private readonly repository: RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository,
+    private readonly settings: AccountEstablishmentSettings,
+    private readonly logger: Logger,
+    private readonly accountAuth: AccountAuthGate = denyAccountAuth,
+    private readonly now: () => number = Date.now,
+  ) {}
+
+  start(): void {
+    if (!this.settings.enabled || this.intervalHandle) return;
+    const interval = this.settings.profileCheckIntervalMs;
+    this.initialHandle = setTimeout(() => {
+      this.initialHandle = null;
+      void this.checkNow();
+    }, Math.min(INITIAL_CHECK_DELAY_MS, interval));
+    this.intervalHandle = setInterval(() => void this.checkNow(), interval);
+    this.logger.info(
+      `Account establishment check for u/${this.redditUsername}:`
+      + ` scheduled every ${Math.round(interval / 3_600_000)} hours`,
+    );
+  }
+
+  stop(): void {
+    if (this.initialHandle) clearTimeout(this.initialHandle);
+    if (this.intervalHandle) clearInterval(this.intervalHandle);
+    this.initialHandle = null;
+    this.intervalHandle = null;
+  }
+
+  snapshot(): AccountEstablishmentRecord | null {
+    return this.repository.get(this.accountId);
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * Whether the account may attempt an outbound invitation. Only an explicit
+   * unestablished verdict inside its backoff window holds it back — an
+   * unchecked account is allowed through so a first run is never blocked.
+   */
+  isSendable(): boolean {
+    if (!this.settings.enabled) return true;
+    const record = this.repository.get(this.accountId);
+    if (!record || record.state !== 'unestablished') return true;
+    return record.retryAt !== null && this.now() >= record.retryAt;
+  }
+
+  /** Refresh the profile snapshot and re-derive the verdict from it. */
+  async checkNow(): Promise<AccountEstablishmentRecord | null> {
+    if (!this.settings.enabled || this.checking) return null;
+    if (!this.accountAuth.isFullyAuthenticated()) return null;
+    this.checking = true;
+    try {
+      const profile = await this.reddit.getAccountProfile(this.redditUsername);
+      if (!profile) {
+        this.logger.warn(`Account establishment check: u/${this.redditUsername} profile is unavailable`);
+        return null;
+      }
+      const metrics: AccountProfileMetricsInput = {
+        accountCreatedAt: profile.createdAt,
+        linkKarma: profile.linkKarma,
+        commentKarma: profile.commentKarma,
+        totalKarma: profile.totalKarma,
+        hasVerifiedEmail: profile.hasVerifiedEmail,
+      };
+      const previous = this.repository.get(this.accountId);
+      const verdict = evaluateAccountProfile(metrics, this.settings, this.now());
+      const held = this.heldByProbe(previous);
+
+      // A live rejection outranks the profile thresholds: keep the account held
+      // until its backoff expires even if the numbers now look acceptable.
+      if (held) {
+        const record = this.repository.saveProfileVerdict({
+          accountId: this.accountId,
+          state: 'unestablished',
+          reasons: [...previous!.reasons, ...verdict.reasons.filter((reason) => !previous!.reasons.includes(reason))],
+          metrics,
+          checkedAt: this.now(),
+          retryAt: previous!.retryAt,
+        });
+        return record;
+      }
+
+      const record = this.repository.saveProfileVerdict({
+        accountId: this.accountId,
+        state: verdict.established ? 'established' : 'unestablished',
+        reasons: verdict.reasons,
+        metrics,
+        checkedAt: this.now(),
+        retryAt: verdict.established ? null : this.now() + this.settings.profileCheckIntervalMs,
+      });
+      if (!verdict.established && previous?.state !== 'unestablished') {
+        this.logger.warn(
+          `u/${this.redditUsername} is not established yet: ${verdict.reasons.join('; ')}`,
+        );
+      }
+      if (verdict.established && previous && previous.state !== 'established') {
+        this.logger.info(`u/${this.redditUsername} now meets the establishment thresholds`);
+      }
+      return record;
+    } catch (error) {
+      if (error instanceof RedditRateLimitError) {
+        this.logger.warn(
+          `Account establishment check paused for u/${this.redditUsername}: Reddit rate-limited profile lookups`,
+        );
+        return null;
+      }
+      const message = error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error);
+      this.logger.warn(`Account establishment check failed for u/${this.redditUsername}: ${message}`);
+      return null;
+    } finally {
+      this.checking = false;
+    }
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * Classify a failed invitation. Returns the recorded state when the failure
+   * was Reddit refusing an unestablished account, and null otherwise so
+   * ordinary throttles and recipient-side refusals are left alone.
+   */
+  recordSendFailure(
+    reason: string | null | undefined,
+    redditCode: string | null | undefined = null,
+  ): AccountEstablishmentRecord | null {
+    if (!this.settings.enabled) return null;
+    if (!isUnestablishedFailure(reason, redditCode)) return null;
+    const previous = this.repository.get(this.accountId);
+    const failures = (previous?.probeFailureCount ?? 0) + 1;
+    const backoff = Math.min(
+      this.settings.probeRetryBaseMs * 2 ** (failures - 1),
+      this.settings.probeRetryMaxMs,
+    );
+    const detail = redditCode ? `${reason ?? 'Invitation rejected'} (${redditCode})` : reason!;
+    const record = this.repository.recordProbeFailure({
+      accountId: this.accountId,
+      reason: `Reddit rejected an invitation from this account: ${detail}`,
+      retryAt: this.now() + backoff,
+      at: this.now(),
+    });
+    this.logger.warn(
+      `u/${this.redditUsername} held out of sending — Reddit rejected the invitation as an unestablished account`
+      + ` (${detail}); retrying in ${Math.round(backoff / 3_600_000)}h`,
+    );
+    return record;
+  }
+
+  /** A delivered invitation proves the account is established. */
+  recordSendSuccess(): AccountEstablishmentRecord | null {
+    if (!this.settings.enabled) return null;
+    const previous = this.repository.get(this.accountId);
+    if (previous?.state === 'established' && previous.probeFailureCount === 0) return previous;
+    const record = this.repository.recordProbeSuccess(this.accountId, this.now());
+    if (previous?.state === 'unestablished') {
+      this.logger.info(`u/${this.redditUsername} delivered an invitation — clearing the unestablished flag`);
+    }
+    return record;
+  }
+
+  private heldByProbe(record: AccountEstablishmentRecord | null): boolean {
+    return Boolean(
+      record
+      && record.state === 'unestablished'
+      && record.probeFailureCount > 0
+      && record.retryAt !== null
+      && this.now() < record.retryAt,
+    );
+  }
+}

src/services/reddit-account-runtime-builder.ts

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import {
 } from '../database/repositories.js';
 import {
   AccountContentRepository,
+  RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository,
   RedditAccountsRepository,
   RedditRecipientAccountStatusRepository,
 } from '../database/account-repositories.js';
@@ -53,6 +54,7 @@ import { AiUsageRepository } from '../database/ai-usage-repository.js';
 import { MediaLibraryRepository } from '../database/media-library-repository.js';
 import { MediaLibraryExchangeService } from './media-library-exchange.js';
 import { RecipientAccountStatusService } from './recipient-account-status.js';
+import { AccountEstablishmentService } from './account-establishment.js';
 
 export interface ConcreteRuntimeFactoryOptions {
   config: Config;
@@ -225,6 +227,15 @@ async function buildRuntime(
       logger,
       accountAuth,
     );
+    const establishmentService = new AccountEstablishmentService(
+      session.accountId,
+      session.redditUsername,
+      redditApi,
+      new RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository(db),
+      accountConfig.accountEstablishment,
+      logger,
+      accountAuth,
+    );
     const responseChecker = new ResponseCheckerService(
       chatPage, messagesRepo, successfulMessagesRepo, postsRepo, logger,
       accountAuth, conversationOutcomesRepo,
@@ -277,7 +288,7 @@ async function buildRuntime(
       activityLogRepo,
       monitorService, processorService, responseChecker, conversationAutomation, chatService, mediaService,
       mediaSyncService, mediaExchange, rateLimiter,
-      recipientAccountStatusService,
+      recipientAccountStatusService, establishmentService,
     };
     const lifecycle = new AccountRuntimeLoop(
       resources, accountConfig, logger, isBotRunning, recipientDeduplicator,
@@ -318,6 +329,7 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
     this.controller = new AbortController();
     this.resources.mediaSyncService.start();
     this.resources.recipientAccountStatusService.start();
+    this.resources.establishmentService.start();
     void this.resources.chatService.runStartupSync()
       .then(() => this.resources.chatService.enrichUsernames())
       .catch((error) => this.logger.error(`[account ${this.resources.accountAuth.getSnapshot().redditUsername}] startup sync failed:`, error));
@@ -328,6 +340,7 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
     this.controller?.abort();
     this.resources.mediaSyncService.stop();
     this.resources.recipientAccountStatusService.stop();
+    this.resources.establishmentService.stop();
     await this.loop?.catch((error) => {
       if (!(error instanceof DOMException && error.name === 'AbortError')) throw error;
     });
@@ -415,7 +428,7 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
   }
 
   async dispatchPreparedPost(processed: ProcessedPost, signal?: AbortSignal): Promise<PreparedDeliveryResult> {
-    const { postsRepo, messagesRepo, redditApi, rateLimiter, chatService } = this.resources;
+    const { postsRepo, messagesRepo, redditApi, rateLimiter, chatService, establishmentService } = this.resources;
     const { post } = processed;
     if (signal?.aborted) {
       return { status: 'retryable', reason: 'Delivery interrupted by shutdown', retryAt: Date.now() + 5_000 };
@@ -446,6 +459,13 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
       );
       if (start.status !== 'sent') {
         this.recipientDeduplicator.release(post.author);
+        // The rejection reason is the only place Reddit tells us the account is
+        // too new to invite anyone; the code, when there is one, rides on the
+        // cooldown the chat service just recorded.
+        establishmentService.recordSendFailure(
+          start.reason,
+          chatService.getInvitationCooldown()?.redditCode ?? null,
+        );
         if (start.status === 'terminal') {
           postsRepo.setError(post.id, start.reason);
           this.resources.activityLogRepo.insert({
@@ -457,6 +477,7 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
       }
 
       postsRepo.markMessageSent(post.id);
+      establishmentService.recordSendSuccess();
       messagesRepo.insert({
         postId: post.id, recipient: post.author, subject: post.author,
         message: processed.generatedMessage, sentAt: Date.now(),

src/services/reddit-account-runtime.ts

@@ -35,6 +35,7 @@ import type { ResponseCheckerService } from './response-checker.js';
 import type { RedditPost } from '../reddit/api.js';
 import type { ConversationAutomationService } from './conversation-automation.js';
 import type { RecipientAccountStatusService } from './recipient-account-status.js';
+import type { AccountEstablishmentService } from './account-establishment.js';
 import type { ProcessedPost, ProcessResult } from './processor.js';
 
 /** Credentials passed to a factory. They must never be exposed by list/snapshot APIs. */
@@ -83,6 +84,7 @@ export interface RedditAccountRuntimeResources {
   mediaService: MediaService;
   mediaSyncService: MediaSyncService;
   recipientAccountStatusService: RecipientAccountStatusService;
+  establishmentService: AccountEstablishmentService;
   mediaExchange?: MediaLibraryExchangeService;
   rateLimiter: RateLimiter;
 }
@@ -197,6 +199,9 @@ export class RedditAccountRuntime {
     if (this.state !== 'running') return false;
     if (!this.resources.accountAuth.isFullyAuthenticated()
       && !(await this.resources.accountAuth.ensureFullyAuthenticated())) return false;
+    // An account Reddit has refused invitations from would burn the candidate,
+    // so it takes no new posts until its re-test window opens.
+    if (!this.resources.establishmentService.isSendable()) return false;
     if (await this.resources.conversationAutomation.hasActionableReplies()) return false;
     if (this.resources.chatService.getInvitationCooldown()) return false;
     return this.resources.rateLimiter.getTimers().nextMessageAvailableAt === null;

src/services/reddit-accounts.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,11 @@
 import { z } from 'zod';
 import type { Cookie } from 'playwright';
-import type { RedditAccountsRepository, RedditAccountPublicRecord } from '../database/account-repositories.js';
+import type {
+  RedditAccountsRepository,
+  RedditAccountPublicRecord,
+  RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository,
+  AccountEstablishmentState,
+} from '../database/account-repositories.js';
 import type { AccountAuthContext } from './account-auth-context.js';
 import type { RedditSessionImporter } from './reddit-session-importer.js';
 import type { MatrixCredentials } from './chat/matrix/types.js';
@@ -19,6 +24,21 @@ const StoredMatrixCredentialsSchema = z.object({
   capturedAt: z.number(),
 });
 
+/** How established the account looks, and the evidence behind that. */
+export interface RedditAccountEstablishmentSummary {
+  state: AccountEstablishmentState;
+  reasons: string[];
+  accountAgeDays: number | null;
+  linkKarma: number | null;
+  commentKarma: number | null;
+  totalKarma: number | null;
+  hasVerifiedEmail: boolean | null;
+  profileCheckedAt: number | null;
+  lastProbeAt: number | null;
+  lastProbeFailure: string | null;
+  retryAt: number | null;
+}
+
 export interface RedditAccountSummary {
   accountId: string;
   redditUsername: string;
@@ -28,6 +48,8 @@ export interface RedditAccountSummary {
   createdAt: number;
   updatedAt: number;
   lastImportedAt: number;
+  /** Null until the establishment check has run for this account. */
+  establishment: RedditAccountEstablishmentSummary | null;
 }
 
 export class RedditAccountsService {
@@ -37,6 +59,7 @@ export class RedditAccountsService {
     private readonly auth: AccountAuthContext,
     private readonly runtimes?: RedditAccountRuntimeManager,
     private readonly verificationBrowser?: BrowserClient,
+    private readonly establishment?: RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository,
   ) {}
 
   list(): RedditAccountSummary[] {
@@ -91,6 +114,27 @@ export class RedditAccountsService {
       createdAt: account.createdAt,
       updatedAt: account.updatedAt,
       lastImportedAt: account.lastImportedAt ?? account.updatedAt,
+      establishment: this.toEstablishmentSummary(account.accountId),
+    };
+  }
+
+  private toEstablishmentSummary(accountId: string): RedditAccountEstablishmentSummary | null {
+    const record = this.establishment?.get(accountId);
+    if (!record) return null;
+    return {
+      state: record.state,
+      reasons: record.reasons,
+      accountAgeDays: record.accountCreatedAt === null
+        ? null
+        : Math.max(0, Math.floor((Date.now() - record.accountCreatedAt) / 86_400_000)),
+      linkKarma: record.linkKarma,
+      commentKarma: record.commentKarma,
+      totalKarma: record.totalKarma,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: record.hasVerifiedEmail,
+      profileCheckedAt: record.profileCheckedAt,
+      lastProbeAt: record.lastProbeAt,
+      lastProbeFailure: record.lastProbeFailure,
+      retryAt: record.retryAt,
     };
   }
 }

src/web/routes/attention.ts

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import type { WebContext } from '../context.js';
 
 interface AttentionItem {
   id: string;
-  kind: 'human-required' | 'boundary' | 'failed-delivery' | 'account-login-required' | 'runtime-failed' | 'invitation-cooldown';
+  kind: 'human-required' | 'boundary' | 'failed-delivery' | 'account-login-required' | 'runtime-failed' | 'invitation-cooldown' | 'account-unestablished';
   severity: 'warning' | 'critical';
   title: string;
   detail: string;
@@ -20,6 +20,22 @@ export function createAttentionRouter(ctx: WebContext): Router {
     const items: AttentionItem[] = [];
     const accounts = ctx.services.redditAccounts?.list() ?? [];
     for (const account of accounts) {
+      const owner = { accountId: account.accountId, redditUsername: account.redditUsername };
+      if (account.establishment?.state === 'unestablished') {
+        const { reasons, retryAt } = account.establishment;
+        items.push({
+          id: `establishment:${account.accountId}`,
+          kind: 'account-unestablished',
+          severity: 'warning',
+          title: `u/${account.redditUsername} is not established yet`,
+          detail: `${reasons.length > 0 ? reasons.join('; ') : 'Reddit will not accept chat invitations from this account yet.'}`
+            + ` Outbound sending is on hold${retryAt ? ` until ${new Date(retryAt).toISOString()}` : ''}.`,
+          occurredAt: account.establishment.profileCheckedAt
+            ?? account.establishment.lastProbeAt
+            ?? account.updatedAt,
+          owner,
+        });
+      }
       if (account.status !== 'login-required') continue;
       items.push({
         id: `account:${account.accountId}`,
@@ -28,7 +44,7 @@ export function createAttentionRouter(ctx: WebContext): Router {
         title: `u/${account.redditUsername} needs a new session`,
         detail: 'Import a fresh extension session before this account can resume.',
         occurredAt: account.updatedAt,
-        owner: { accountId: account.accountId, redditUsername: account.redditUsername },
+        owner,
       });
     }
 

src/web/routes/stats.ts

@@ -59,6 +59,9 @@ export function createStatsRouter(ctx: WebContext): Router {
               ? 'login-required'
               : runtimeState !== 'running'
                 ? 'runtime-stopped'
+              : account.establishment?.state === 'unestablished'
+                  && !(account.establishment.retryAt !== null && account.establishment.retryAt <= Date.now())
+                ? 'unestablished'
               : accountCooldown
                 ? 'matrix-cooldown'
                 : !ctx.getBotRunning()

src/web/types.ts

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ export interface BotStats {
     redditUsername: string;
     runtimeState: 'created' | 'starting' | 'running' | 'stopping' | 'stopped' | 'failed';
     authenticated: boolean;
-    sendingState: 'ready' | 'bot-stopped' | 'runtime-stopped' | 'runtime-failed' | 'login-required' | 'matrix-cooldown' | 'replies-prioritized' | 'pacing';
+    sendingState: 'ready' | 'bot-stopped' | 'runtime-stopped' | 'runtime-failed' | 'login-required' | 'matrix-cooldown' | 'replies-prioritized' | 'pacing' | 'unestablished';
     messagesThisHour: number;
     maxMessagesPerHour: number;
     nextMessageAvailableAt: number | null;

tests/account-establishment.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,332 @@
+import { afterEach, beforeEach, describe, expect, it, vi } from 'vitest';
+import Database from 'better-sqlite3';
+import {
+  RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository,
+  RedditAccountsRepository,
+} from '../src/database/account-repositories.js';
+import { runMigrations } from '../src/database/client.js';
+import {
+  AccountEstablishmentService,
+  evaluateAccountProfile,
+  isUnestablishedFailure,
+  type AccountEstablishmentSettings,
+} from '../src/services/account-establishment.js';
+import { RedditAccountsService } from '../src/services/reddit-accounts.js';
+import type { RedditAccountProfile } from '../src/reddit/api.js';
+import { RedditRateLimitError } from '../src/reddit/api.js';
+import { createMockLogger } from './mockLogger.js';
+
+const DAY_MS = 24 * 60 * 60_000;
+const NOW = 1_700_000_000_000;
+const ACCOUNT_ID = '@t2_new:reddit.com';
+
+const settings: AccountEstablishmentSettings = {
+  enabled: true,
+  profileCheckIntervalMs: 6 * 60 * 60_000,
+  minAccountAgeDays: 7,
+  minTotalKarma: 20,
+  minCommentKarma: 5,
+  requireVerifiedEmail: false,
+  probeRetryBaseMs: 4 * 60 * 60_000,
+  probeRetryMaxMs: 48 * 60 * 60_000,
+};
+
+function profile(overrides: Partial<RedditAccountProfile> = {}): RedditAccountProfile {
+  return {
+    createdAt: NOW - 30 * DAY_MS,
+    linkKarma: 100,
+    commentKarma: 50,
+    totalKarma: 150,
+    hasVerifiedEmail: true,
+    isSuspended: false,
+    ...overrides,
+  };
+}
+
+describe('unestablished failure classification', () => {
+  it('recognises the Reddit codes and messages that mean the account is too new', () => {
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure(null, 'rate.invitation_limit_new_account')).toBe(true);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure(null, 'rate.invitation_limit_immature_account')).toBe(true);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure('Your account is too new to start chats', null)).toBe(true);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure('You need more karma to message this user', null)).toBe(true);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure('Please verify your email address first', null)).toBe(true);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure('New accounts cannot start chats', null)).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('leaves ordinary throttles and recipient-side refusals alone', () => {
+    // This code is the throttle applied to accounts that *are* established.
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure(
+      'Reddit is throttling new chat invitations; replies in existing chats can continue.',
+      'rate.invitation_limit_mature_account',
+    )).toBe(false);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure('Recipient does not accept chat requests', null)).toBe(false);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure('Reddit user is unavailable', null)).toBe(false);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure('Reddit chat invitation failed temporarily', 'rate.room_creation_limit')).toBe(false);
+    expect(isUnestablishedFailure(null, null)).toBe(false);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('profile evaluation', () => {
+  it('reports every threshold the account falls short of', () => {
+    const verdict = evaluateAccountProfile({
+      accountCreatedAt: NOW - 2 * DAY_MS,
+      linkKarma: 1,
+      commentKarma: 1,
+      totalKarma: 2,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: false,
+    }, { ...settings, requireVerifiedEmail: true }, NOW);
+
+    expect(verdict.established).toBe(false);
+    expect(verdict.reasons).toEqual([
+      'Account is 2 days old (needs 7 days)',
+      'Total karma is 2 (needs 20)',
+      'Comment karma is 1 (needs 5)',
+      'Email address is not verified',
+    ]);
+  });
+
+  it('passes an account that clears every threshold', () => {
+    const verdict = evaluateAccountProfile({
+      accountCreatedAt: NOW - 30 * DAY_MS,
+      linkKarma: 100,
+      commentKarma: 50,
+      totalKarma: 150,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: true,
+    }, settings, NOW);
+
+    expect(verdict).toEqual({ established: true, reasons: [] });
+  });
+
+  it('never counts a missing value against the account', () => {
+    const verdict = evaluateAccountProfile({
+      accountCreatedAt: null,
+      linkKarma: null,
+      commentKarma: null,
+      totalKarma: null,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: null,
+    }, { ...settings, requireVerifiedEmail: true }, NOW);
+
+    expect(verdict).toEqual({ established: true, reasons: [] });
+  });
+});
+
+describe('AccountEstablishmentService', () => {
+  let db: Database.Database;
+  let repository: RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository;
+  let now: number;
+
+  function createService(
+    getAccountProfile: (username: string) => Promise<RedditAccountProfile | null>,
+    overrides: Partial<AccountEstablishmentSettings> = {},
+  ) {
+    return new AccountEstablishmentService(
+      ACCOUNT_ID,
+      'new-account',
+      { getAccountProfile },
+      repository,
+      { ...settings, ...overrides },
+      createMockLogger(),
+      { isFullyAuthenticated: () => true, invalidate: () => undefined },
+      () => now,
+    );
+  }
+
+  beforeEach(() => {
+    now = NOW;
+    db = new Database(':memory:');
+    db.pragma('foreign_keys = ON');
+    runMigrations(db);
+    new RedditAccountsRepository(db).upsertVerified({
+      accountId: ACCOUNT_ID,
+      redditUsername: 'new-account',
+      matrixUserId: ACCOUNT_ID,
+      cookiesJson: '[]',
+      matrixCredentialsJson: '{}',
+      now: NOW,
+    });
+    repository = new RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository(db);
+  });
+
+  afterEach(() => db.close());
+
+  it('allows sending until something says otherwise', () => {
+    const service = createService(async () => profile());
+
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(true);
+    expect(service.snapshot()).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it('flags a brand new account from its profile and stores the evidence', async () => {
+    const service = createService(async () => profile({
+      createdAt: NOW - DAY_MS,
+      linkKarma: 0,
+      commentKarma: 0,
+      totalKarma: 0,
+    }));
+
+    const record = await service.checkNow();
+
+    expect(record).toMatchObject({
+      state: 'unestablished',
+      accountCreatedAt: NOW - DAY_MS,
+      linkKarma: 0,
+      commentKarma: 0,
+      totalKarma: 0,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: true,
+      profileCheckedAt: NOW,
+      probeFailureCount: 0,
+    });
+    expect(record!.reasons).toContain('Account is 1 day old (needs 7 days)');
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('clears the flag once the account has aged and earned karma', async () => {
+    let current = profile({ createdAt: NOW - DAY_MS, linkKarma: 0, commentKarma: 0, totalKarma: 0 });
+    const service = createService(async () => current);
+
+    await service.checkNow();
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(false);
+
+    now = NOW + 10 * DAY_MS;
+    current = profile({ createdAt: NOW - DAY_MS, commentKarma: 30, totalKarma: 60 });
+    const record = await service.checkNow();
+
+    expect(record).toMatchObject({ state: 'established', reasons: [] });
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('holds the account out of sending when Reddit rejects an invitation as too new', () => {
+    const service = createService(async () => profile());
+
+    const record = service.recordSendFailure(
+      'Reddit chat invitation failed temporarily',
+      'rate.invitation_limit_new_account',
+    );
+
+    expect(record).toMatchObject({ state: 'unestablished', probeFailureCount: 1 });
+    expect(record!.retryAt).toBe(NOW + settings.probeRetryBaseMs);
+    expect(record!.lastProbeFailure).toContain('rate.invitation_limit_new_account');
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(false);
+
+    now = NOW + settings.probeRetryBaseMs;
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('ignores failures that are not about how established the account is', () => {
+    const service = createService(async () => profile());
+
+    expect(service.recordSendFailure('Recipient does not accept chat requests', null)).toBeNull();
+    expect(service.snapshot()).toBeNull();
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('backs off further on each repeated rejection, up to the configured ceiling', () => {
+    const service = createService(async () => profile(), { probeRetryMaxMs: 6 * 60 * 60_000 });
+
+    expect(service.recordSendFailure('account is too new')!.retryAt).toBe(NOW + 4 * 60 * 60_000);
+    expect(service.recordSendFailure('account is too new')!.retryAt).toBe(NOW + 6 * 60 * 60_000);
+    expect(service.recordSendFailure('account is too new')).toMatchObject({
+      probeFailureCount: 3,
+      retryAt: NOW + 6 * 60 * 60_000,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it('treats a delivered invitation as proof the account is established', () => {
+    const service = createService(async () => profile());
+    service.recordSendFailure('account is too new');
+
+    const record = service.recordSendSuccess();
+
+    expect(record).toMatchObject({
+      state: 'established',
+      reasons: [],
+      probeFailureCount: 0,
+      retryAt: null,
+      lastProbeFailure: null,
+    });
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('keeps a rejected account held even when its profile now looks acceptable', async () => {
+    const service = createService(async () => profile());
+    service.recordSendFailure('account is too new');
+
+    now = NOW + 60_000;
+    const record = await service.checkNow();
+
+    expect(record).toMatchObject({ state: 'unestablished', retryAt: NOW + settings.probeRetryBaseMs });
+    expect(record!.totalKarma).toBe(150);
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('leaves the stored verdict untouched when Reddit rate-limits the profile lookup', async () => {
+    const service = createService(async () => { throw new RedditRateLimitError(60_000); });
+
+    expect(await service.checkNow()).toBeNull();
+    expect(service.snapshot()).toBeNull();
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('does nothing at all when establishment tracking is disabled', async () => {
+    const getAccountProfile = vi.fn(async () => profile({ createdAt: NOW }));
+    const service = createService(getAccountProfile, { enabled: false });
+
+    service.start();
+    expect(await service.checkNow()).toBeNull();
+    expect(service.recordSendFailure('account is too new')).toBeNull();
+    expect(getAccountProfile).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+    expect(service.isSendable()).toBe(true);
+    service.stop();
+  });
+
+  it('publishes the stored evidence through the account listing the dashboard reads', async () => {
+    const accounts = new RedditAccountsService(
+      new RedditAccountsRepository(db),
+      {} as never,
+      { getSnapshot: () => ({ accountId: ACCOUNT_ID }) } as never,
+      undefined,
+      undefined,
+      repository,
+    );
+
+    expect(accounts.list()[0].establishment).toBeNull();
+
+    // Age is reported relative to the wall clock the dashboard renders in.
+    await createService(async () => profile({
+      createdAt: Date.now() - 3 * DAY_MS,
+      linkKarma: 1,
+      commentKarma: 2,
+      totalKarma: 3,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: false,
+    })).checkNow();
+
+    expect(accounts.list()[0].establishment).toMatchObject({
+      state: 'unestablished',
+      accountAgeDays: 3,
+      linkKarma: 1,
+      commentKarma: 2,
+      totalKarma: 3,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: false,
+      profileCheckedAt: NOW,
+      retryAt: NOW + settings.profileCheckIntervalMs,
+    });
+    expect(accounts.list()[0].establishment!.reasons.length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+  });
+
+  it('skips the check while the account session is not authenticated', async () => {
+    const getAccountProfile = vi.fn(async () => profile());
+    const service = new AccountEstablishmentService(
+      ACCOUNT_ID,
+      'new-account',
+      { getAccountProfile },
+      repository,
+      settings,
+      createMockLogger(),
+      { isFullyAuthenticated: () => false, invalidate: () => undefined },
+      () => now,
+    );
+
+    expect(await service.checkNow()).toBeNull();
+    expect(getAccountProfile).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+});

tests/dashboard/accounts.test.tsx

@@ -21,6 +21,20 @@ const account = {
   lastImportedAt: 2,
 };
 
+const establishment = {
+  state: 'unestablished' as const,
+  reasons: ['Account is 2 days old (needs 7 days)', 'Total karma is 4 (needs 20)'],
+  accountAgeDays: 2,
+  linkKarma: 1,
+  commentKarma: 3,
+  totalKarma: 4,
+  hasVerifiedEmail: false,
+  profileCheckedAt: 1_700_000_000_000,
+  lastProbeAt: null,
+  lastProbeFailure: null,
+  retryAt: Date.now() + 4 * 60 * 60_000,
+};
+
 const server = setupServer(
   http.get('/api/login/status', () => HttpResponse.json({ ready: true, loggedIn: false, status: 'login-required' })),
   http.get('/api/accounts', () => HttpResponse.json([])),
@@ -81,6 +95,56 @@ describe('accounts page', () => {
     expect(screen.getByText('Waiting for a refreshed session')).toBeInTheDocument();
   });
 
+  it('explains why an unestablished account is not sending, with the profile evidence', async () => {
+    server.use(http.get('/api/accounts', () => HttpResponse.json([{ ...account, establishment }])));
+    renderAccounts();
+
+    expect(await screen.findByText('u/example-account is not established yet.')).toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.getByText(/Reddit will not accept chat invitations from a new account/)).toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.getByText('Not established')).toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.getByText(
+      'Account is 2 days old (needs 7 days); Total karma is 4 (needs 20)',
+    )).toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.getByText(/Next re-test in about 4 hours/)).toBeInTheDocument();
+
+    const metrics = screen.getByText('Comment karma').closest('dl')!;
+    expect(within(metrics).getByText('2 days')).toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(within(metrics).getByText('3')).toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(within(metrics).getByText('No')).toBeInTheDocument();
+  });
+
+  it('marks an account that has cleared the thresholds as established', async () => {
+    server.use(http.get('/api/accounts', () => HttpResponse.json([{
+      ...account,
+      establishment: {
+        ...establishment,
+        state: 'established',
+        reasons: [],
+        accountAgeDays: 400,
+        commentKarma: 900,
+        totalKarma: 1_200,
+        hasVerifiedEmail: true,
+        retryAt: null,
+      },
+    }])));
+    renderAccounts();
+
+    expect(await screen.findByText('Established')).toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.queryByText(/not established yet/)).not.toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.queryByText(/Outbound sending is on hold/)).not.toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.getByText('1,200')).toBeInTheDocument();
+  });
+
+  it('shows no establishment detail before the first check has run', async () => {
+    server.use(http.get('/api/accounts', () => HttpResponse.json([{ ...account, establishment: null }])));
+    renderAccounts();
+
+    expect(await screen.findByRole('link', { name: 'u/example-account' })).toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.queryByText('Not established')).not.toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.queryByText('Established')).not.toBeInTheDocument();
+    expect(screen.queryByText('Comment karma')).not.toBeInTheDocument();
+  });
+
   it('says plainly when no accounts have been added', async () => {
     renderAccounts();
 

tests/database.test.ts

@@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ describe('Database Client', () => {
         .prepare("SELECT name FROM sqlite_master WHERE type='table' AND name NOT LIKE 'sqlite_%'")
         .all() as { name: string }[];
       // Existing domain/config tables plus account, conversation, sync and media ownership stores.
-      expect(tables.length).toBe(22);
+      expect(tables.length).toBe(23);
       expect(tables.map((table) => table.name)).toEqual(expect.arrayContaining([
         'candidate_queue',
         'runtime_state',
@@ -115,6 +115,7 @@ describe('Database Client', () => {
         'media_library_sends',
         'conversation_read_state',
         'reddit_recipient_account_status',
+        'reddit_account_establishment',
       ]));
     });
 

tests/reddit-account-runtime.test.ts

@@ -240,6 +240,7 @@ describe('account runtime isolation', () => {
         conversationAutomation: { hasActionableReplies },
         chatService: { getInvitationCooldown: () => null },
         rateLimiter: { getTimers: () => ({ nextMessageAvailableAt: null }) },
+        establishmentService: { isSendable: () => true },
       } as unknown as RedditAccountRuntimeResources,
       { start: vi.fn(), stop: vi.fn() },
     );
@@ -250,6 +251,37 @@ describe('account runtime isolation', () => {
     expect(await runtime.canAcceptPost()).toBe(true);
   });
 
+  it('does not accept new outreach while the account is not established yet', async () => {
+    const stored = account('too_new');
+    const isSendable = vi.fn().mockReturnValue(false);
+    const runtime = new RedditAccountRuntime(
+      {
+        accountId: stored.accountId,
+        redditUsername: stored.redditUsername,
+        matrixUserId: stored.matrixUserId!,
+        cookies: [],
+        matrixCredentials: JSON.parse(stored.matrixCredentialsJson),
+        updatedAt: stored.updatedAt,
+      },
+      {
+        accountAuth: {
+          isFullyAuthenticated: () => true,
+          ensureFullyAuthenticated: async () => true,
+        },
+        conversationAutomation: { hasActionableReplies: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(false) },
+        chatService: { getInvitationCooldown: () => null },
+        rateLimiter: { getTimers: () => ({ nextMessageAvailableAt: null }) },
+        establishmentService: { isSendable },
+      } as unknown as RedditAccountRuntimeResources,
+      { start: vi.fn(), stop: vi.fn() },
+    );
+    await runtime.start();
+
+    expect(await runtime.canAcceptPost()).toBe(false);
+    isSendable.mockReturnValue(true);
+    expect(await runtime.canAcceptPost()).toBe(true);
+  });
+
   it('uses the Reddit fullname for auth while retaining the Matrix runtime owner', () => {
     expect(runtimeAuthenticatedAccount(
       { matrixUserId: '@t2_1u57iqxxbv:reddit.com' },

tests/reddit-api.test.ts

@@ -622,6 +622,65 @@ describe('RedditApiClient', () => {
     });
   });
 
+  describe('getAccountProfile', () => {
+    it('reads age, karma and email verification for one of our own accounts', async () => {
+      const mockAxios = { get: vi.fn() };
+      vi.mocked(axios.create).mockReturnValue(mockAxios as unknown as AxiosInstance);
+      const client2 = new RedditApiClient(getTestConfig(), logger);
+
+      mockAxios.get.mockResolvedValueOnce({
+        data: {
+          data: {
+            created_utc: 1_700_000_000,
+            link_karma: 12,
+            comment_karma: 30,
+            total_karma: 42,
+            has_verified_email: true,
+          },
+        },
+      });
+
+      await expect(client2.getAccountProfile('new-account')).resolves.toEqual({
+        createdAt: 1_700_000_000_000,
+        linkKarma: 12,
+        commentKarma: 30,
+        totalKarma: 42,
+        hasVerifiedEmail: true,
+        isSuspended: false,
+      });
+    });
+
+    it('derives total karma when Reddit omits it and leaves absent fields null', async () => {
+      const mockAxios = { get: vi.fn() };
+      vi.mocked(axios.create).mockReturnValue(mockAxios as unknown as AxiosInstance);
+      const client2 = new RedditApiClient(getTestConfig(), logger);
+
+      mockAxios.get.mockResolvedValueOnce({ data: { data: { link_karma: 3, comment_karma: 4 } } });
+
+      await expect(client2.getAccountProfile('new-account')).resolves.toEqual({
+        createdAt: null,
+        linkKarma: 3,
+        commentKarma: 4,
+        totalKarma: 7,
+        hasVerifiedEmail: null,
+        isSuspended: false,
+      });
+    });
+
+    it('reports a missing profile as null and still propagates real failures', async () => {
+      const mockAxios = { get: vi.fn() };
+      vi.mocked(axios.create).mockReturnValue(mockAxios as unknown as AxiosInstance);
+      const client2 = new RedditApiClient(getTestConfig(), logger);
+
+      mockAxios.get.mockRejectedValueOnce({ isAxiosError: true, response: { status: 404 } });
+      await expect(client2.getAccountProfile('gone')).resolves.toBeNull();
+
+      const temporary = { isAxiosError: true, response: { status: 503 } };
+      mockAxios.get.mockRejectedValueOnce(temporary);
+      await expect(client2.getAccountProfile('new-account')).rejects.toBe(temporary);
+    });
+  });
+
   describe('getNewPosts', () => {
     it('throws a permanent-disable signal for a plain 404 subreddit', async () => {
       const error = { isAxiosError: true, response: { status: 404 } };

tests/web/attention-route.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+import express from 'express';
+import type { AddressInfo } from 'node:net';
+import { afterEach, describe, expect, it } from 'vitest';
+import { AttentionResponseSchema } from '../../packages/api-contracts/src/index.js';
+import type { WebContext } from '../../src/web/context.js';
+import { createAttentionRouter } from '../../src/web/routes/attention.js';
+
+const servers: Array<ReturnType<express.Express['listen']>> = [];
+
+async function get(context: WebContext, path: string): Promise<Response> {
+  const app = express();
+  app.use('/api', createAttentionRouter(context));
+  const server = app.listen(0);
+  servers.push(server);
+  await new Promise<void>((resolve) => server.once('listening', resolve));
+  const { port } = server.address() as AddressInfo;
+  return fetch(`http://127.0.0.1:${port}${path}`);
+}
+
+afterEach(async () => {
+  await Promise.all(servers.splice(0).map((server) => new Promise<void>((resolve) => server.close(() => resolve()))));
+});
+
+function contextWith(accounts: unknown[]): WebContext {
+  return {
+    services: {
+      redditAccounts: { list: () => accounts },
+      accountRuntimes: { list: () => [], get: () => null },
+    },
+  } as unknown as WebContext;
+}
+
+const NOW = 1_700_000_000_000;
+const account = {
+  accountId: '@t2_new:reddit.com',
+  redditUsername: 'new-account',
+  status: 'authenticated',
+  updatedAt: NOW,
+};
+
+describe('attention route establishment items', () => {
+  it('raises an unestablished account with its reasons and hold window', async () => {
+    const response = await get(contextWith([{
+      ...account,
+      establishment: {
+        state: 'unestablished',
+        reasons: ['Account is 2 days old (needs 7 days)'],
+        retryAt: NOW + 4 * 60 * 60_000,
+        profileCheckedAt: NOW,
+        lastProbeAt: null,
+      },
+    }]), '/api/attention');
+
+    expect(response.status).toBe(200);
+    const body = AttentionResponseSchema.parse(await response.json());
+    expect(body.items).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(body.items[0]).toMatchObject({
+      id: 'establishment:@t2_new:reddit.com',
+      kind: 'account-unestablished',
+      severity: 'warning',
+      title: 'u/new-account is not established yet',
+      occurredAt: NOW,
+      owner: { accountId: account.accountId, redditUsername: 'new-account' },
+    });
+    expect(body.items[0].detail).toContain('Account is 2 days old (needs 7 days)');
+    expect(body.items[0].detail).toContain('Outbound sending is on hold');
+  });
+
+  it('stays quiet for established accounts and for accounts never checked', async () => {
+    const response = await get(contextWith([
+      { ...account, establishment: { state: 'established', reasons: [], retryAt: null, profileCheckedAt: NOW, lastProbeAt: null } },
+      { ...account, accountId: '@t2_other:reddit.com', redditUsername: 'other', establishment: null },
+    ]), '/api/attention');
+
+    const body = AttentionResponseSchema.parse(await response.json());
+    expect(body.items).toEqual([]);
+  });
+
+  it('reports an unestablished account that also needs a new session as two separate items', async () => {
+    const response = await get(contextWith([{
+      ...account,
+      status: 'login-required',
+      establishment: {
+        state: 'unestablished',
+        reasons: [],
+        retryAt: null,
+        profileCheckedAt: NOW,
+        lastProbeAt: null,
+      },
+    }]), '/api/attention');
+
+    const body = AttentionResponseSchema.parse(await response.json());
+    expect(body.items.map((item) => item.kind).sort())
+      .toEqual(['account-login-required', 'account-unestablished']);
+  });
+});