feat: flag accounts Reddit considers unestablished and re-test them

New accounts cannot start chats until Reddit considers them established.
Until now the bot would burn a candidate on every invitation Reddit was
always going to reject, with nothing in the dashboard explaining why the
account looked idle.

Two signals feed the verdict. A periodic profile check reads the
account's own age, karma and email verification from about.json and
compares them against configurable thresholds — that is what flags a
brand new account before it wastes anything. A rejected invitation is
authoritative: Reddit has told us directly, so the account is held out of
sending with a backoff that doubles per rejection, and a delivered
invitation clears the flag outright.

An unestablished account takes no new posts (canAcceptPost), raises an
attention item, reports an `unestablished` sending state, and shows its
age/karma evidence on the Accounts page. An unchecked account is always
allowed through, so a first run is never blocked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/services/reddit-account-runtime-builder.ts

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ import {
 } from '../database/repositories.js';
 import {
   AccountContentRepository,
+  RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository,
   RedditAccountsRepository,
   RedditRecipientAccountStatusRepository,
 } from '../database/account-repositories.js';
@@ -53,6 +54,7 @@ import { AiUsageRepository } from '../database/ai-usage-repository.js';
 import { MediaLibraryRepository } from '../database/media-library-repository.js';
 import { MediaLibraryExchangeService } from './media-library-exchange.js';
 import { RecipientAccountStatusService } from './recipient-account-status.js';
+import { AccountEstablishmentService } from './account-establishment.js';
 
 export interface ConcreteRuntimeFactoryOptions {
   config: Config;
@@ -225,6 +227,15 @@ async function buildRuntime(
       logger,
       accountAuth,
     );
+    const establishmentService = new AccountEstablishmentService(
+      session.accountId,
+      session.redditUsername,
+      redditApi,
+      new RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository(db),
+      accountConfig.accountEstablishment,
+      logger,
+      accountAuth,
+    );
     const responseChecker = new ResponseCheckerService(
       chatPage, messagesRepo, successfulMessagesRepo, postsRepo, logger,
       accountAuth, conversationOutcomesRepo,
@@ -277,7 +288,7 @@ async function buildRuntime(
       activityLogRepo,
       monitorService, processorService, responseChecker, conversationAutomation, chatService, mediaService,
       mediaSyncService, mediaExchange, rateLimiter,
-      recipientAccountStatusService,
+      recipientAccountStatusService, establishmentService,
     };
     const lifecycle = new AccountRuntimeLoop(
       resources, accountConfig, logger, isBotRunning, recipientDeduplicator,
@@ -318,6 +329,7 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
     this.controller = new AbortController();
     this.resources.mediaSyncService.start();
     this.resources.recipientAccountStatusService.start();
+    this.resources.establishmentService.start();
     void this.resources.chatService.runStartupSync()
       .then(() => this.resources.chatService.enrichUsernames())
       .catch((error) => this.logger.error(`[account ${this.resources.accountAuth.getSnapshot().redditUsername}] startup sync failed:`, error));
@@ -328,6 +340,7 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
     this.controller?.abort();
     this.resources.mediaSyncService.stop();
     this.resources.recipientAccountStatusService.stop();
+    this.resources.establishmentService.stop();
     await this.loop?.catch((error) => {
       if (!(error instanceof DOMException && error.name === 'AbortError')) throw error;
     });
@@ -415,7 +428,7 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
   }
 
   async dispatchPreparedPost(processed: ProcessedPost, signal?: AbortSignal): Promise<PreparedDeliveryResult> {
-    const { postsRepo, messagesRepo, redditApi, rateLimiter, chatService } = this.resources;
+    const { postsRepo, messagesRepo, redditApi, rateLimiter, chatService, establishmentService } = this.resources;
     const { post } = processed;
     if (signal?.aborted) {
       return { status: 'retryable', reason: 'Delivery interrupted by shutdown', retryAt: Date.now() + 5_000 };
@@ -446,6 +459,13 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
       );
       if (start.status !== 'sent') {
         this.recipientDeduplicator.release(post.author);
+        // The rejection reason is the only place Reddit tells us the account is
+        // too new to invite anyone; the code, when there is one, rides on the
+        // cooldown the chat service just recorded.
+        establishmentService.recordSendFailure(
+          start.reason,
+          chatService.getInvitationCooldown()?.redditCode ?? null,
+        );
         if (start.status === 'terminal') {
           postsRepo.setError(post.id, start.reason);
           this.resources.activityLogRepo.insert({
@@ -457,6 +477,7 @@ class AccountRuntimeLoop {
       }
 
       postsRepo.markMessageSent(post.id);
+      establishmentService.recordSendSuccess();
       messagesRepo.insert({
         postId: post.id, recipient: post.author, subject: post.author,
         message: processed.generatedMessage, sentAt: Date.now(),