feat: flag accounts Reddit considers unestablished and re-test them

New accounts cannot start chats until Reddit considers them established.
Until now the bot would burn a candidate on every invitation Reddit was
always going to reject, with nothing in the dashboard explaining why the
account looked idle.

Two signals feed the verdict. A periodic profile check reads the
account's own age, karma and email verification from about.json and
compares them against configurable thresholds — that is what flags a
brand new account before it wastes anything. A rejected invitation is
authoritative: Reddit has told us directly, so the account is held out of
sending with a backoff that doubles per rejection, and a delivered
invitation clears the flag outright.

An unestablished account takes no new posts (canAcceptPost), raises an
attention item, reports an `unestablished` sending state, and shows its
age/karma evidence on the Accounts page. An unchecked account is always
allowed through, so a first run is never blocked.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/database/account-repositories.ts

@@ -389,6 +389,211 @@ export class RedditRecipientAccountStatusRepository {
   }
 }
 
+export type AccountEstablishmentState = 'unknown' | 'established' | 'unestablished';
+
+export interface AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+  accountId: string;
+  state: AccountEstablishmentState;
+  /** Why the account is not established yet. Empty when it is. */
+  reasons: string[];
+  accountCreatedAt: number | null;
+  linkKarma: number | null;
+  commentKarma: number | null;
+  totalKarma: number | null;
+  hasVerifiedEmail: boolean | null;
+  profileCheckedAt: number | null;
+  lastProbeAt: number | null;
+  lastProbeFailure: string | null;
+  probeFailureCount: number;
+  /** Earliest time the account may attempt an outbound invitation again. */
+  retryAt: number | null;
+  updatedAt: number;
+}
+
+export interface AccountProfileMetricsInput {
+  accountCreatedAt: number | null;
+  linkKarma: number | null;
+  commentKarma: number | null;
+  totalKarma: number | null;
+  hasVerifiedEmail: boolean | null;
+}
+
+type EstablishmentRow = {
+  account_id: string;
+  state: AccountEstablishmentState;
+  reasons_json: string;
+  account_created_at: number | null;
+  link_karma: number | null;
+  comment_karma: number | null;
+  total_karma: number | null;
+  has_verified_email: number | null;
+  profile_checked_at: number | null;
+  last_probe_at: number | null;
+  last_probe_failure: string | null;
+  probe_failure_count: number;
+  retry_at: number | null;
+  updated_at: number;
+};
+
+/**
+ * Whether each of our own Reddit accounts is established enough for Reddit to
+ * accept chat invitations from it, and the profile evidence behind that call.
+ */
+export class RedditAccountEstablishmentRepository {
+  constructor(private readonly db: Database.Database) {}
+
+  get(accountId: string): AccountEstablishmentRecord | null {
+    const row = this.db.prepare('SELECT * FROM reddit_account_establishment WHERE account_id = ?')
+      .get(accountId) as EstablishmentRow | undefined;
+    return row ? mapEstablishment(row) : null;
+  }
+
+  list(): AccountEstablishmentRecord[] {
+    const rows = this.db.prepare('SELECT * FROM reddit_account_establishment ORDER BY account_id')
+      .all() as EstablishmentRow[];
+    return rows.map(mapEstablishment);
+  }
+
+  /** Store a profile snapshot and the verdict derived from it. */
+  saveProfileVerdict(input: {
+    accountId: string;
+    state: AccountEstablishmentState;
+    reasons: string[];
+    metrics: AccountProfileMetricsInput;
+    checkedAt?: number;
+    retryAt?: number | null;
+  }): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+    requireText(input.accountId, 'accountId');
+    const now = input.checkedAt ?? Date.now();
+    this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO reddit_account_establishment (
+        account_id, state, reasons_json, account_created_at, link_karma, comment_karma,
+        total_karma, has_verified_email, profile_checked_at, probe_failure_count, retry_at, updated_at
+      ) VALUES (
+        @accountId, @state, @reasonsJson, @accountCreatedAt, @linkKarma, @commentKarma,
+        @totalKarma, @hasVerifiedEmail, @now, 0, @retryAt, @now
+      )
+      ON CONFLICT(account_id) DO UPDATE SET
+        state = excluded.state,
+        reasons_json = excluded.reasons_json,
+        account_created_at = excluded.account_created_at,
+        link_karma = excluded.link_karma,
+        comment_karma = excluded.comment_karma,
+        total_karma = excluded.total_karma,
+        has_verified_email = excluded.has_verified_email,
+        profile_checked_at = excluded.profile_checked_at,
+        retry_at = excluded.retry_at,
+        updated_at = excluded.updated_at
+    `).run({
+      accountId: input.accountId,
+      state: input.state,
+      reasonsJson: JSON.stringify(input.reasons),
+      accountCreatedAt: input.metrics.accountCreatedAt,
+      linkKarma: input.metrics.linkKarma,
+      commentKarma: input.metrics.commentKarma,
+      totalKarma: input.metrics.totalKarma,
+      hasVerifiedEmail: boolToInt(input.metrics.hasVerifiedEmail),
+      retryAt: input.retryAt ?? null,
+      now,
+    });
+    return this.getRequired(input.accountId);
+  }
+
+  /** Record that Reddit rejected an outbound invitation for being too new. */
+  recordProbeFailure(input: {
+    accountId: string;
+    reason: string;
+    retryAt: number;
+    at?: number;
+  }): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+    requireText(input.accountId, 'accountId');
+    const now = input.at ?? Date.now();
+    this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO reddit_account_establishment (
+        account_id, state, reasons_json, last_probe_at, last_probe_failure,
+        probe_failure_count, retry_at, updated_at
+      ) VALUES (
+        @accountId, 'unestablished', @reasonsJson, @now, @reason, 1, @retryAt, @now
+      )
+      ON CONFLICT(account_id) DO UPDATE SET
+        state = 'unestablished',
+        reasons_json = excluded.reasons_json,
+        last_probe_at = excluded.last_probe_at,
+        last_probe_failure = excluded.last_probe_failure,
+        probe_failure_count = reddit_account_establishment.probe_failure_count + 1,
+        retry_at = excluded.retry_at,
+        updated_at = excluded.updated_at
+    `).run({
+      accountId: input.accountId,
+      reasonsJson: JSON.stringify([input.reason]),
+      reason: input.reason,
+      retryAt: input.retryAt,
+      now,
+    });
+    return this.getRequired(input.accountId);
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * A delivered invitation is the only positive proof an account is
+   * established, so it clears the flag and the failure backoff outright.
+   */
+  recordProbeSuccess(accountId: string, at: number = Date.now()): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+    requireText(accountId, 'accountId');
+    this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO reddit_account_establishment (
+        account_id, state, reasons_json, last_probe_at, probe_failure_count, retry_at, updated_at
+      ) VALUES (@accountId, 'established', '[]', @at, 0, NULL, @at)
+      ON CONFLICT(account_id) DO UPDATE SET
+        state = 'established',
+        reasons_json = '[]',
+        last_probe_at = excluded.last_probe_at,
+        last_probe_failure = NULL,
+        probe_failure_count = 0,
+        retry_at = NULL,
+        updated_at = excluded.updated_at
+    `).run({ accountId, at });
+    return this.getRequired(accountId);
+  }
+
+  private getRequired(accountId: string): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+    const record = this.get(accountId);
+    if (!record) throw new Error(`Establishment state for ${accountId} was not persisted`);
+    return record;
+  }
+}
+
+function mapEstablishment(row: EstablishmentRow): AccountEstablishmentRecord {
+  return {
+    accountId: row.account_id,
+    state: row.state,
+    reasons: parseReasons(row.reasons_json),
+    accountCreatedAt: row.account_created_at,
+    linkKarma: row.link_karma,
+    commentKarma: row.comment_karma,
+    totalKarma: row.total_karma,
+    hasVerifiedEmail: row.has_verified_email === null ? null : row.has_verified_email === 1,
+    profileCheckedAt: row.profile_checked_at,
+    lastProbeAt: row.last_probe_at,
+    lastProbeFailure: row.last_probe_failure,
+    probeFailureCount: row.probe_failure_count,
+    retryAt: row.retry_at,
+    updatedAt: row.updated_at,
+  };
+}
+
+function parseReasons(json: string): string[] {
+  try {
+    const parsed = JSON.parse(json) as unknown;
+    return Array.isArray(parsed) ? parsed.filter((entry): entry is string => typeof entry === 'string') : [];
+  } catch {
+    return [];
+  }
+}
+
+function boolToInt(value: boolean | null): number | null {
+  return value === null ? null : value ? 1 : 0;
+}
+
 function mapConversation(row: ConversationRow): AccountConversationRecord {
   return {
     accountId: row.account_id,

src/database/client.ts

@@ -456,6 +456,27 @@ export function runMigrations(db: Database.Database): void {
       CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_reddit_recipient_account_status_due
         ON reddit_recipient_account_status(checked_at);
     `),
+    () => db.exec(`
+      CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS reddit_account_establishment (
+        account_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+        state TEXT NOT NULL CHECK(state IN ('unknown', 'established', 'unestablished')),
+        reasons_json TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '[]',
+        account_created_at INTEGER,
+        link_karma INTEGER,
+        comment_karma INTEGER,
+        total_karma INTEGER,
+        has_verified_email INTEGER,
+        profile_checked_at INTEGER,
+        last_probe_at INTEGER,
+        last_probe_failure TEXT,
+        probe_failure_count INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        retry_at INTEGER,
+        updated_at INTEGER NOT NULL,
+        FOREIGN KEY (account_id) REFERENCES reddit_accounts(account_id) ON DELETE CASCADE
+      );
+      CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_reddit_account_establishment_state
+        ON reddit_account_establishment(state, retry_at);
+    `),
   ];
 
   let currentVersion = db.pragma('user_version', { simple: true }) as number;